The Economy

Asia is beginning to see the effects of a sluggish economy and the effects of a contracting financial market. The beginnings of the economic crisis began with the American banks and the US economy exhibiting signs of trouble. This was followed by the effects trickling to the European markets. However, Asia had been quite well sheltered from the effects until now. This, though, is not to say that the effects were not felt earlier but it was probably related to the media in Asia which can sometimes be less liberal than western media in order to prevent panic within the Asian community. In spite of the best efforts to put a good twist to the situation, the effects right now in Asia is very real and this is not merely in the financial industry.

As we flip the papers daily, in countries like Singapore, Malaysia and China (3 relatively robust economies that have encountered good growth results in the past years), we are beginning to see the effects of the sluggish global economy. The effects in Singapore, for example, were not really felt until the beginning of this year. In addition, in December 2008, the biggest layoff of employess were from a local bank and this seemed isolated as an incident. During the holiday season in December 2008 though, many were still not believing how rampant the problem would become. For example, I looked around me during that season and still saw widespread buying of big ticket items, luxury items and bookings for holidays. However, how things have changed in a short period.

Today, as I walk through usually crowded traditional shopping areas, I am beginning to see a reduction of shoppers as well as read of shops having problems as consumers have dwindled. In addition, as we flip the papers daily, we hear of layoffs now from the manufacturing industry with companies trying to monitor costs and make ends meet as a result of the reduction in consumption; cranes at the ports are also up in their resting positions instead of down unloading ships due to the reduced exports coming through. The effects are trickling through all industries as a result of the contraction.

Why am I writing the above? The reason is not to look at it as doom and gloom as many analysts have viewed it but rather, to offer a different analysis on the problem. I realize as I read many of the analysts, they seem to be using the traditional "year on year" analysis; even companies use such an analysis to see how they are doing compared to the previous year. This method of analysis is relevant if there were no problems in the economy and we are not in severe contraction. The result of this method of analysis though results in a flawed result. Let me explain why below.

Let's take a quick look at a "year on year" (yoy) analysis. This method of analysis bases the baseline number on the previous year's results. Analysts look at the results and draw a percentage change from the previous year at the same time. This is the basis of the yoy analysis and this is where I feel a problem can occur. The problem now is that we are in a recession which basically means that the economy is shrinking and all numbers WILL ultimately go down. Compared with the previous year, we would definitely see a significant drop so what else is new. As such, we see many analysts reporting doom and gloom in their forecasts but the reality of this is how is knowing that the economy is shrinking and the company/country's figures are down; we all know this issue already and how does this help us plan our way out of the problem. Overall, we know the problem and we are looking for a solution. As many have said, this is a major economic crisis and unconventional times call for unconventional solutions.

From a layman's perspective (I am no economist but merely a business owner), I would like to put forth a new outlook to all. The first thing that I am suggesting is to change the basis of what we are using to compare our performance. I, for one, am looking at perhaps what was the root cause of this crisis, i.e. why are we in this situation. I am looking at perhaps the US economy and credit crunch as the main cause as the banks over there were the first to experience problems which in turn, resulted in other global banks experiencing problems. Due to this, I have begun looking towards them as a base for looking at things. For example, the housing market doubled in value between 1994 to 2002 and beyond (until recently). Many homeowners were elated by the new found "wealth" in their properties. I shall explain why I put "wealth" in inverted commas in a bit. Another factor, home mortgage interest rates droped from 8% p.a. to 3-4% p.a.

Now, is the picture becoming clearer regarding why I put "wealth" in inverted commas? Let me explain. The "waelth" experienced by many was merely a paper gain as opposed to real wealth. Many of us understand that Economics 101 does not regard a mere paper gain as creation of wealth; wealth equates to liquidity and actual cash being created i.e. a true expansion of the economy. The result of dropping interest rates merely changed the demand and supply curve without creating real wealth. Take a close look at the following. If I had a home that was purchased at $86,000 but was revalued at $150,000 when interest rates halfed, did I really make a gain or was the gain the result of inflationary factors? I would suggest that the gain was not really there no wealth was created because the drop in interest rate merely means people were not able to borrow more with no increase in the actual size of the economy; we merely moved the numbers by the same factor that interest rates had dropped. However, many were unaware of this factor and they went out to borrow against their new found "wealth"; banks as well fell into the trap of their greed and lent on paper gains. The result of this exercise, collapse of an economy that was unable to support the growth as there was no wealth created to begin with; the wealth was all only on paper.

With the above analysis in mind, let me make a few suggestions for analysts and companies even though I am no economist.

1. Stop looking merely at yoy analysis as your basis for planning and forecasting. The answer is very simple regardless of what numbers you want to throw in; your company/country's performance will contract and show a drop and this is a given. In addition, telling everyone that the performance is down 20% from last year doesn't help you set a solution or strategy because you were in a boom time the previous year that was built on artificial wealth (paper gains). To ask your employees or population to achieve the previous year's figures just do not make sense because next year the numbers may show a mere gain of say 5% and the same analysts would say we are recovering because there is growth (if we are down this year and it is the basis, any increase next year would show a gain which is flawed logic).
2. Start thinking through the actual problem itself. People are tired of all the doom and gloom analysis as well as news of how bad the economy is. What people are looking for is a solution because any person off the street can now give you the same doom and gloom forecast without needing an economics background!
3. Think out of the box and stop pretending that you have a solution. In such unconventional times, unconventional solutions are required. As I showed in the above, pick a different basis for your analysis. For example, use figures from the mid 1990s as your baseline before the artificial wealth were created as this may be the true size of the global economy even up to now; there has been no real wealth created in the last 10 years and using that baseline may be a better indicator. By using this basis as your indication, companies may be better equiped to devise a recovery plan because you are looking at true wealth (i.e. money available) rather than artificially created wealth.

Many readers may discount what I have said above but I truly do believe that we have all erred in our analysis. I have merely offered the above as a suggestion and by no means put forth that my analysis is correct (as I am not an economist). I am merely putting forth the above as a way to look at the current issue because I, for one, am becoming tired of the doom and gloom news but I am looking at creating a solution; I manage a company and I am going to look for a solution to save my company instead of merely regurgitating the negative because anyone can join the masses is telling what the problem is but few will take the time to look for a solution. I am going to look for the solution instead of contributing to the problem; I hope all of you will join me.

Delay in Paying Salary

Recently, some of my friends told me they have not received their salary or got their pay delayed. The question is what can you do about it.

When we join a company there is a contract made between the employee and the company. The payment days for salary is stated and is therefore binding. We work for that employer for our salary. If we do not work then the employer would, quite rightly withhold or stop the pay. Employer to delay payment is a breech of the contract. However, there can be all sorts of reasons that the pay are late. If it is only a day or so then try to live with it. If it is a week, we must make him aware of his obligation. Do take note, when an employer starts to delay payment in this way it is a symptom of cash flow problem. Then this is a good time to start looking around for another job.

In this crisis, companies shut down warehouses/ factories and even suffer heavy losses, but employers still have to pay his employees salary. Company should not hold staffs' salary as staff morale will be greatly affected and company need employees to generate income. However, sometimes, if due to bad business, company would have no choice - employees will have to prepare for the worst.

One person I know did not receive his pay and he lodged a complaint to the MOM. However, MOM took a long time to act on the case. Eventually, he brought the matter to the Minister of Manpower and the progress sped up. After receiving his salary, he also lodged a complaint to the CPF board as the company did not contribute to his CPF after he received his salary.

"On December 30 last year, the PRC work permit holders approached the ministry for assistance over their employment disputes with their employers.
The key issues involved salary disputes from September to November 2008, and unhappiness with employers for attempting to revise certain employment terms.
MOM has advised workers who have disputes or grievances with their employers to report the matter to the ministry and allow the matter to be mediated or adjudicated in the Labour Court.
The ministry and the police would not hesitate to take firm action if any laws are violated."

The spokesman for the construction company replied by cautioning, ‘Workers going on strike as they did today is illegal. This is a regular salary dispute.’

Did he understand the seriousness of this or did he thinks the Ministry and Police will definitely protect the company if things get nasty, that's why they can ignored the workers' pleaded?

Caning

Recently, there has been a lot of debates among parents whether to use the cane on children who misbehave. The issue also stated that public caning in school will humiliate that student and causes him low self-esteem and low confidence in the future.

I speak on my personal view. Almost everyone when young had been caned by our parents, sometimes even resort to whatever they can get their hands on, eg. belt, hanger, etc.

Today parents do not resort to caning their 'precious' children. Some say that caning is not solving the problem. The more you cane, the more the child loses his fear of it. The wounds will heal but the scar may not go away. Others say if the cane is needed, it should be used only once or twice, and at appropriate parts of the body like the legs, the palms or the bottom. Of course, there can never be a good reason for adults to inflict violence on children.

In school, teachers struggle every day with often outrageous behaviour. However, the best schools and teachers know that the basis of good behaviour must always be mutual respect, constant encouragement and firm rules. For the toughest cases, remedial behaviour programmes need to be installed.

Of course, teachers would not have these problems if parents did their job at home. That is where the seeds of good behaviour are sown.

I was asking one of my friends the other day who has two children. I asked her what will she do if her children misbehave in school and the principal inform her that the school has to publicly cane her children. She told me she will shout back at the principal and said "Its my kids and I will teach them myself. What gives you the right to do so!"

That is the problem with some parents. Someone once said " If you don't teach your kids properly, then somebody else would."

Everyone of us are taught and disciplined differently when we are young. Some got the caning, some got away with scolding. But when would hitting a child cross the line into abuse?

• Any unnecessary physical pain, suffering or injury
• Any emotional injury
• Any injury to his health or development.

Hitting a child once could be enough to scar or hurt a child. And abuse might occur even if there are no signs of physical injury on the child. Parent who hurls vulgarities at a child every other day is abusing the child, mentally and emotionally.

Some parents reward their children for good behaviour and if they misbehave, they talk to them about the consequences of their bad behaviour, and then makes them stand in a quiet corner for a few minutes to reflect on their actions.

End of the day, nothing beats spending quality time with the children. Just this point alone, has make parents regret and blaming themselves for not doing anything earlier. Don't wait until its too late.

Gaining Respect

In the past, respect came with the title. Managers were respected because they were managers. Today, employees have clear expectations of what they want from their leader. And, if they get what they need, they’ll respect you. If they don’t get what they expect, they can make your life as a leader difficult.

Employees respect leaders who give them more information than they need, rather than less. Giving employees only the information you think they need, deprives them of the opportunity to contribute.

Always have the guts to hold everyone accountable. One of the fastest ways to destroy morale and the employee’s will to do more is to allow the slackers to slack. Those managers who allow poor performers to continue in their ways face the impacts, not only from the poor performers, but from those who perform at the highest levels. Who wants to work hard when a colleague slacks off and gets the same or similar rewards?

I remember working with a company whose manager did not know what we do. When asked, they said, "Their job is simple. How hard can that be?" In reality, the manager had never done the job. He had no idea what kinds of complaints the staff heard everyday. He had not experienced an eight-hour shift standing behind a counter. He had not experienced the rush of a brief 30-minute lunch period. He lived in a different world and the staffs did not respect him.

In today’s complex world, we have to recognize that employees have a life outside of work. And, in some cases, this life presents difficult challenges. The manager must keep the goals of work clearly in mind however, he must be flexible enough to help staffs through rough times.

All of us want to be respected. We want people to believe what we say and to trust us.

Colleagues Who Irritate you

Ever come across colleagues like that? When it comes to attitudes towards their work:

• come in late, but leave on time. And they had obviously stopped working about 15-30 minutes prior to leaving.

• Colleague who is too free.

• Colleague who volunteer to help after the work has been done.

• Colleague who don't follow instructions.

• Colleague who insist on taking your accomplishments at work.

• Colleague who gets so close you can smell his breath and invades your personal space.

• Colleague who makes fun of everything you say or do.

• The conversation stops as soon as you enter the room.

• Colleague with the fake laughter and fake talk.

• Colleague who is not tactful, e.g., "What's wrong with your hair today? It looks like bird nest!!"

• Colleague who comes up to you every 5 mins and ask, "Do you think this is correct? Is this how it should be done?"

• Colleague who complain non-stop. And say that the work is too tough and impossible to do.

Dealing with the irritants are unpleasant and people avoid addressing the problems they cause. This will allow the irritants to gain positive reinforcement and attention for their negative behaviour. Do not say 'never', 'every', or 'always'. Irritants will argue the exceptions. "You never co-operate," will not work. Instead say this, "We don't see eye to eye on this. What do you think we could do?" encourage dialogue, negotiation.

Remember to stick to the path. Irritants are expert at manipulation. They change the subject, attack, accuse, excuse, plead, ignore and debate you. Don't let them sidetrack you.

Turn off by Arrogant Attitude

Ever came across people who answer and talk beginning with the word 'So!' or 'So?'? This is one of the characteristic of the arrogant people. The way they look at you, the way they talk could get you on your nerve. Sometimes, they are super sweet because they needed your help. And once they get it, they are back to their old and arrogant way. And mind you, they do have terrible mood swing.

We may want to smack them, criticize them, call them names or talk in disrespectful ways about them. We may want to break their arrogance and tell them how you really think. But sadly, people rarely tell them off or not give any clues about what we think.

The thing is, arrogant people feel inferior and insecure. They are self-conscious and want to be “special”. They cover their flaws by trying to appear perfect so they will not be criticized.

They tend to be defensive and they don’t hear what we say. They respond based on their own pre-conceived notions rather than on the actual situation. They may make statements that seem to be full of confidence even when they are completely wrong. (Very familiar?)

Some people say the way to handle arrogant people is never put them down by criticising them openly, instead, compliment them in a gentle and sincere way. But I think it work both way, nobody should openly criticise or judge anyone in anyway as well.

My Tolerance is Running Low

I encountered a lot of incidents everyday that were really testing my patience and temper. It is whether a not are you mindful of it and are you able to tolerate it.

Take this incident that happen to me in a public transport, person sitting next to me coughed without covering her mouth, (take note: plus bad breathe). Later on, she was searching in her bag for something and her elbow kept poking me. I mean, I really wanted to tell her off but I remained silent and continued reading my book.

Another incident, I held the door for this person, she just walked out of the door without a word of appreciation, not even a smile, not even looking at me. At that point in time, I really feel like letting go of the door and have it slam into her face. But then, I thought, "why so ungracious like her?"

Another incident, I was walking towards by destination, I saw in front of me a lady bumped straight into a man. The man got angry and shouted vulgarities at her. I mean, the lady was unintentional and harmless but why the man had to make a big fuss over it?

It keeps me thinking, I just wonder, when my tolerance level will get "empty"?
Rudeness is everywhere and it can be exhausting for us all. We get angry and worst, we could end up in a fight.

There’s no simple explanation for others’ inconsiderate behavior, and no easy
formula for avoiding the impact. But some people handle rudeness more adeptly
than others.

Inconsiderate, angry and rude people are everywhere. let's just hope that every places we go, we encounter the good ones..